The Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) market across the seven major markets (7MM) is projected to grow significantly, reaching $9.9 billion by 2033 from $2.2 billion in 2023, representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 13.3%, according to a recent GlobalData report titled “Type 1 Diabetes: Seven-Market Drug Forecast and Market Analysis.”
US Dominates the T1D Market
The United States remains the largest contributor to T1D drug sales, accounting for 80.4% of global sales in 2023 and projected to further increase its market share to 91.6% by 2033. This growth is fueled by the rising adoption of ultra-rapid-acting insulin analogs and the increased use of insulin pumps, which are improving glycemic control and patient outcomes.
According to Sulayman Patel, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, rapid-acting insulin analogs are gaining traction among both prescribing physicians and patients due to their ability to optimize glycemic control and reduce lifestyle disruptions.
Pipeline Therapies Driving Growth
The late-stage T1D drug pipeline is set to introduce innovative therapies aimed at addressing critical unmet needs. Among the anticipated breakthroughs are:
- Eli Lilly’s Insulin Efsitora Alfa: Expected to launch in 2027, this once-weekly insulin analog aims to enhance patient compliance and offer a competitive edge over current therapies.
- Novo Nordisk’s Awiqli (Insulin Icodec): This basal insulin therapy focuses on minimizing lifestyle disruption and improving adherence.
- Diamyd Medical’s T1D Vaccine: This immunomodulatory agent aims to serve as a disease-modifying therapy, potentially eliminating the need for lifelong insulin use.
If successful, these therapies will address the underlying mechanisms of T1D, significantly improving beta cell function and disease management.
Role of Immunomodulatory Agents
The immunomodulatory segment in the T1D drug landscape is set to play a transformative role. Therapies such as Johnson & Johnson’s Ustekinumab and Dompe Pharmaceuticals’ Ladarixin have shown promise in clinical trials. These drugs are poised to complement Sanofi’s Tzield (Teplizumab), which received FDA approval in November 2022 as the first disease-modifying therapy for T1D, delaying the onset of stage 3 T1D in patients aged 8 years and older.
GlobalData forecasts Tzield to become the top-selling T1D drug, generating sales of $4.8 billion by 2033 across the 7MM.
Challenges in the T1D Market
Despite the promising outlook, the market faces challenges that could slow growth. High costs of immunomodulatory therapies and insurance and reimbursement barriers remain significant obstacles. Additionally, the high clinical trial failure rates for disease-modifying treatments present ongoing hurdles for drug developers.
Patel notes: “The uptake of Tzield has been slower than anticipated due to its high cost and limited long-term data. However, increasing adoption, European regulatory approval, and the launch of additional immunomodulatory agents are expected to drive robust market growth.”
Also read: Global IT Spending to Cross $6.3 Trillion by 2027: Canalys
Future Outlook
By 2033, immunomodulatory agents are expected to make up 63.5% of total T1D drug sales. This signals a major shift in how the disease is treated. Regulatory approvals, innovative therapies, and improved financial accessibility will be key drivers of this growth.
Advancements in treatment and a strong pipeline of disease-modifying drugs are set to reshape the T1D market. These changes promise better outcomes for millions of patients worldwide.
